Earnings Results: Beat
UPDATE: Micron Technology has reported Q2 FY2026 earnings.
| Metric | Estimate | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $8.8643 | $12.2 | 37.6% |
Micron Technology (XNAS: MU) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings after the close on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. The memory semiconductor manufacturer faces high expectations from a Wall Street analyst corps that has grown increasingly bullish on the AI infrastructure buildout and memory demand recovery. Micron has crushed consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters, posting an average EPS beat of 10.6%. The stock is up 25.5% year-to-date, trading at $370.30 with a $464.1B market cap.
Key Takeaways
- Wall Street expects $8.86 EPS and $19.56B revenue for Q2 FY2026, representing 115.3% and 43.6% YoY growth respectively from Q2 FY2025.
- Micron has beaten EPS consensus in all 4 prior quarters with a 10.6% average surprise rate; a beat of similar magnitude would push EPS to ~$9.74, above current price expectations.
- Key watch items: data center memory revenue trajectory, operating margin expansion, and management commentary on supply/demand balance heading into Q3 FY2026.
When Does Micron Report Earnings?
Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Time: After market close (4:05 p.m. ET estimated)
Conference Call: 5:00 p.m. ET the same day
Micron's investor relations team will host the earnings conference call, available via webcast. Details are available on the company's investor relations page. Analysts and investors should dial in early; historical Q4 and Q3 calls have attracted 300+ institutional participants given the criticality of memory pricing signals to the broader semiconductor sector.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 Consensus | Q1 FY2026 Actual | Q2 FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $8.8643 | $4.78 | $4.1158 | +115.3% |
| Revenue | $19.56B | $13.64B | $13.62B | +43.6% |
The consensus EPS estimate of $8.86 reflects accelerating profitability. In the prior quarter (Q1 FY2026), Micron reported $4.78 EPS — already 17.4% above the $4.07 estimate. Sequential EPS is expected to nearly double in Q2, driven by both top-line expansion and operating leverage as memory prices recover and AI infrastructure spending remains robust.
Revenue consensus of $19.56B implies a 43.6% year-over-year increase from Q2 FY2025's $13.62B. This aligns with industry-wide DRAM and NAND bit growth estimates of 15-20%, suggesting Micron's average selling prices (ASP) are gaining 20-25% year-over-year — a meaningful recovery from the 2023-2024 memory price trough.
Estimate Revision Trend: Over the past 90 days, consensus has trended upward. Analysts have raised 2026 full-year EPS estimates as data center spending remains elevated and smartphone memory demand accelerates. Q2 estimates have held relatively stable, indicating conviction around the $8.86 EPS consensus.
Key Metrics to Watch
1. Data Center Memory Revenue
Data center memory (DRAM and HBM) represents Micron's highest-margin segment and primary driver of YoY growth. Wall Street expects this segment to grow 50%+ year-over-year as AI model training and inference deployments consume record volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Management commentary on HBM capacity utilization and next-generation node readiness will be critical. Any supply constraints or yield issues could signal upside to the current consensus, or vice versa.
2. Gross Margin Expansion
As memory ASPs recover, gross margin should expand. Q1 FY2026 reported gross margin of ~52% (implied from net income and revenue). Q2 consensus implies an operating margin improvement that requires gross margin near 55-56%. Watch for management guidance on margin trajectory heading into Q3 and beyond. Structural margin improvement (vs. temporary pricing upside) is the key validator of a durable semiconductor cycle.
3. Free Cash Flow and Capital Intensity
Micron's capex intensity remains elevated as the company funds fab expansions for HBM and advanced NAND nodes. Q2 FCF will signal whether profitability improvements are translating to cash generation. Investors should monitor management's capex guidance for FY2026 — if capex moderates, FCF yields could become attractive for a $464B market cap company.
What Management Said Last Quarter
In the Q1 FY2026 earnings call (December 2025), management guided Q2 FY2026 revenue to a midpoint of approximately $19.0B-$20.0B — a range that brackets current consensus of $19.56B. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized data center DRAM and HBM as the primary growth vectors, noting that Micron's high-bandwidth memory product shipments are ramping faster than previously expected.
Management also signaled that gross margins would remain strong through 2026 as memory supply/demand remains balanced. They noted that any near-term softness in NAND pricing would be offset by accelerating DRAM ASP gains. This guidance has historically proven conservative — Micron's track record shows management beats its own guidance 70% of the time.
Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Next Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 (Dec 2025) | $4.0720 | $4.7800 | +17.4% | +6.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 (Sep 2025) | $2.9461 | $3.0300 | +2.8% | +2.1% |
| Q3 FY2025 (Jun 2025) | $1.6490 | $1.9100 | +15.8% | +8.7% |
| Q2 FY2025 (Mar 2025) | $1.4662 | $1.5600 | +6.4% | +3.8% |
Average EPS Beat: 10.6%
Average Post-Earnings Stock Move (next trading day): +5.2%
Micron's recent track record shows a perfect 4-for-4 beat streak over the past year. The magnitude of beats has ranged from 2.8% to 17.4%, with the largest beats (Q1 FY2026's +17.4% and Q3 FY2025's +15.8%) occurring when memory ASP recovery accelerated faster than modeled. If Micron delivers a similar 10-15% beat on Q2, EPS would reach $9.75-$10.19, well above consensus, and the stock could gap 5-8% higher on March 19.
Analyst Sentiment
Consensus Rating Breakdown:
- Strong Buy: 17
- Buy: 32
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 0
- Total Analysts Covering: 54
49 of 54 analysts rate Micron Buy or higher. The 91% bullish consensus is among the highest for large-cap semiconductors and reflects conviction that memory fundamentals will remain strong through 2026. Only 2 analysts maintain Sell ratings.
Price Target Analysis:
The average analyst price target sits at $465.00 as of March 2026. At the current price of $370.30, this implies 25.6% upside to consensus. The target range spans $380 (bears) to $550 (bulls), with the 12-month bull case predicated on sustained HBM ramps and data center ASP premiums.
Recent Analyst Actions:
- Morgan Stanley (Feb 2026): Upgraded MU to Overweight with $520 target, citing HBM supply constraints benefiting Micron's higher-end process nodes.
- Goldman Sachs (Jan 2026): Raised Q2 FY2026 EPS estimate to $9.15 (from $8.62), citing stronger-than-expected enterprise DRAM demand.
- Bernstein (Feb 2026): Maintained Outperform with $475 target, noting that AI infrastructure capex cycles typically last 8-10 quarters — Micron is only in year 2-3 of the upcycle.
What This Means for Micron Stock
Current Valuation: Micron trades at 41.8x forward P/E (based on 2026E EPS of $8.86), significantly higher than its 5-year average of 12.3x. However, in absolute terms, the valuation reflects normalized earnings power during a strong semiconductor cycle. Historical comparables: In 2021, during the previous memory cycle peak, MU traded at 15-18x forward P/E at similar absolute earnings levels.
Year-to-Date Performance: Up 25.5% with 90-day support at $363.90 and 90-day resistance at $455.50. The stock is consolidating below resistance ahead of the earnings catalyst. A beat could push the stock through $455.50 toward the $500 level (13% upside from current price).
Options Implied Move: The options market is pricing a 7.2% move post-earnings (straddle spread at-the-money), suggesting the market expects volatility but is uncertain on direction. This is below Micron's 10.6% historical beat average, indicating traders may be underpricing upside surprise potential given the 4-quarter beat streak.
Technical Setup: At $370.30, MU is holding above its 50-day moving average (~$355) but below the 20-day MA (~$375), indicating consolidation ahead of the catalyst. A close above $455 post-earnings would target $500+ on follow-through buying.
The earnings report will provide crucial guidance on Q3 FY2026 and the trajectory of memory ASP. Any hint that the data center DRAM/HBM cycle is moderating would pressure the stock toward $350 support. Conversely, a beat coupled with strong Q3 guidance could propel MU toward its analyst consensus target of $465 within weeks.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Micron Technology report Q2 FY2026 earnings?
Micron reports after the close on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET. Investors can access details via the company's investor relations website.
What is the Wall Street consensus EPS estimate for Micron Q2 FY2026?
The consensus estimate is $8.86 EPS on $19.56B in revenue. This represents 115.3% EPS growth and 43.6% revenue growth year-over-year.
Will Micron beat earnings in Q2 FY2026?
Micron has beaten consensus EPS in all 4 of the past 4 quarters, averaging a 10.6% surprise. While we cannot predict future results, the historical beat rate is elevated. A similar beat would push Q2 EPS to approximately $9.74, which the market has not yet priced in.
What are the key metrics investors should watch in Micron's Q2 FY2026 earnings?
Focus on data center memory segment revenue growth (expect 50%+ YoY), gross margin trajectory (watch for sustainability above 55%), and management guidance on Q3 data center ASP trends. Any commentary on HBM supply/demand balance or fab utilization rates will be critical.
What is the current analyst price target for Micron Technology?
The average analyst price target is $465.00, implying 25.6% upside from the current price of $370.30. 49 of 54 analysts rate the stock Buy or higher. Check the MU stock page for the most recent target updates.
Where can I find more earnings previews and dates?
Visit the TickerDaily Earnings Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming earnings dates, consensus estimates, and historical beats across all sectors.