Nvidia will report NVDA Q1 FY2027 earnings on Tuesday, May 20, 2026, after market close. The consensus estimate calls for $1.792 EPS and $80.07B in revenue—both representing significant growth from prior-year levels. With the stock trading at $215.20 and up 12.4% year-to-date, investors are pricing in continued dominance in AI infrastructure despite competitive pressure from AMD and new entrants.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters, averaging a 2.1% surprise rate. This preview breaks down what Wall Street expects, which metrics matter most, and what could move the stock on May 21.
Key Takeaways
- Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 on May 20 after market close with consensus estimates of $1.792 EPS and $80.07B revenue—both 15-20% above year-ago levels.
- Data Center revenue is the critical metric; any guidance miss on AI infrastructure demand or China exposure weakness could trigger a sharp sell-off given the stock's premium valuation.
- Nvidia has beaten EPS estimates in four straight quarters averaging 2.1% surprise; next catalyst is May 21 post-market price action and May 22 conference call at 3:00 PM PT.
When Does Nvidia Report Q1 FY2027 Earnings?
Date: Tuesday, May 20, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM ET (after market close)
Conference Call: Wednesday, May 22, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT
Nvidia will release earnings after the market closes on May 20, followed by a live conference call with Jensen Huang, CEO, and Colette Kress, CFO, on May 22. Investors can access the call and investor materials at investor.nvidia.com. The company typically provides forward guidance on both revenue and data center demand during the call—making the Q&A portion critical for interpreting management's confidence in the AI buildout cycle.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Wall Street expects Nvidia to deliver strong results but with moderating growth from prior quarters:
| Metric | Q1 FY2027 Consensus | Q4 FY2026 Actual | Q1 FY2026 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.792 | $1.62 | $0.51 | +251% |
| Revenue | $80.07B | $72.67B | $24.09B | +232% |
The consensus estimate implies a modest sequential deceleration from Q4 FY2026's 10% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth. Analyst estimates for Q1 revenue have held steady over the past 90 days with no major upward or downward revisions—a sign that street conviction remains intact but enthusiasm has stabilized. EPS estimates are similarly stable, reflecting consistent gross margin and tax rate assumptions.
Key Metrics to Watch
1. Data Center Revenue
Data Center is the crown jewel, representing approximately 88% of total revenue in Q4 FY2026. Wall Street will scrutinize the sequential trend and any color on demand from hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud). A slowdown in Data Center bookings or guidance for Q2 would signal cooling AI infrastructure investment. Watch for year-over-year growth rate—anything below 100% YoY growth would be the first deceleration and could trigger valuation compression.
2. Gaming Revenue
Gaming has recovered from weakness in 2024 but remains secondary to Data Center. The consensus assumes modest Gaming revenue, roughly 8-10% of total. Watch whether Gaming accelerates on RTX demand, or whether enterprise focus continues to cannibalize consumer GPU mindshare. Any guidance suggesting sustained Gaming weakness signals higher dependency on Data Center cycles.
3. Gross Margin
Gross margin is expected to hold near 66-67%, reflecting stable product mix and manufacturing costs. Rising margins would suggest pricing power; declining margins could signal competitive pressure or shift toward lower-margin products. A miss on gross margin could be more damaging than a revenue miss, as it implies unit weakness or mix deterioration.
4. China Revenue Exposure
Management stopped disclosing China revenue explicitly in recent quarters due to U.S. export restrictions, but investors parse guidance carefully for any hints. Geopolitical escalation or new export controls on AI chips could materially impact Data Center sales. Listen for any comments from Jensen on China exposure during the Q&A.
What Management Said Last Quarter
In Q4 FY2026 guidance, Nvidia provided a midpoint revenue estimate of $72.67B (actual: $72.67B), indicating the company guided conservatively on both the beat and the forward outlook. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized accelerating AI infrastructure adoption across hyperscalers and enterprise segments. Management guided conservatively through 2024, but has since become more aggressive with forward commentary as confidence in the AI cycle solidified.
For Q1 FY2027, expect management to reaffirm strong Data Center demand and provide a revenue midpoint for Q2. Any hint that hyperscalers are pulling back on capex or that inventory is building could trigger a sharp stock decline. Conversely, if Huang signals accelerating H100/H200 adoption or new AI workload expansion, that could support a post-earnings rally.
Earnings Surprise History
Nvidia has delivered consistent upside surprises over the past four quarters:
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Next-Day Stock Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 (Mar 2026) | $1.5634 | $1.62 | +3.6% | +4.2% |
| Q3 FY2026 (Dec 2025) | $1.2746 | $1.30 | +2.0% | +2.8% |
| Q2 FY2026 (Sep 2025) | $1.0281 | $1.05 | +2.1% | +3.1% |
| Q1 FY2026 (Jun 2025) | $0.9521 | $0.96 | +0.8% | +1.2% |
Average EPS Beat Rate: 2.1%
Average Post-Earnings Stock Move: +2.8%
The pattern shows Nvidia consistently beats by 1-4%, though the magnitude of beats has compressed as analyst estimates have become more sophisticated. Stock reactions post-earnings average a modest 2.8% gain the next day, suggesting the market digests the numbers efficiently and most moves come from guidance commentary rather than the headline surprise itself. If NVDA beats by more than 4% on EPS, that could signal unexpected strength; if it misses or beats by less than 1%, that could signal deceleration concerns.
Analyst Sentiment
Rating Breakdown (71 total analysts):
- Strong Buy: 24 (33.8%)
- Buy: 42 (59.2%)
- Hold: 4 (5.6%)
- Sell: 1 (1.4%)
- Strong Sell: 0 (0%)
Average Price Target: $248.60 (vs. current price of $215.20 = +15.6% upside)
The analyst consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish on NVDA, with 93% of coverage in Buy/Strong Buy categories. This reflects conviction in the multi-year AI infrastructure cycle but also leaves limited room for upside surprise. Recent notable analyst actions include Goldman Sachs maintaining its $280 price target in April (implying 30% upside), Morgan Stanley keeping its Buy rating with a $260 target, and Bernstein's cautionary note on valuation at 45x forward earnings.
What This Means for NVDA Stock
Current Price: $215.20
52-Week Range: $164.27 (support) — $217.80 (resistance)
YTD Performance: +12.4%
Market Cap: $5.23 trillion
Nvidia is trading at approximately 43.5x forward P/E (based on consensus Q1 EPS of $1.792), a 12% premium to its 5-year historical average of 38.8x. This valuation premium reflects market conviction in AI dominance but leaves limited margin for error on guidance. At current levels, the stock needs to deliver not just on Q1 results but on forward-looking confidence to justify the multiple.
The options market is pricing an implied move of approximately 4.2% for May 21, suggesting traders expect a moderate reaction either direction. Support is firm at $164.27 (90-day low), and resistance is capped at $217.80. A beat with strong guidance could propel the stock toward $225; conversely, any miss or conservative guidance could push it back toward $200.
Check the TickerDaily Earnings Calendar for real-time updates on Nvidia earnings and other major tech reports this week.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Nvidia report Q1 FY2027 earnings?
Nvidia reports on Tuesday, May 20, 2026, after market close at 4:00 PM ET. The company will host a live conference call on Wednesday, May 22 at 6:00 PM ET with Jensen Huang and Colette Kress to discuss results and forward guidance.
What is the consensus EPS estimate for Nvidia Q1 FY2027?
Wall Street's consensus EPS estimate for Q1 FY2027 is $1.792, representing 251% year-over-year growth from $0.51 in Q1 FY2026. Revenue consensus is $80.07B, up 232% YoY.
Does Nvidia typically beat earnings estimates?
Yes. Over the past four quarters, Nvidia has beaten EPS estimates in every quarter, averaging a 2.1% beat rate. The stock has gained an average of 2.8% the next trading day following earnings reports, suggesting the market reacts more to forward guidance than headline surprises.
What is the most important metric to watch in Nvidia's Q1 earnings?
Data Center revenue is the critical metric, representing ~88% of total revenue. Wall Street will focus on sequential Data Center growth rate, any signs of hyperscaler capex slowdown, and management commentary on China exposure given geopolitical uncertainty. Gross margin is the secondary watch—any compression could signal competitive pressure.
What is Nvidia's price target after earnings?
The average analyst price target is $248.60, implying 15.6% upside from the current $215.20 price. Goldman Sachs' $280 target (30% upside) is among the highest, while Bernstein's caution on valuation at 45x forward multiples represents the cautious end of the spectrum.