Roku reports Q2 FY2026 earnings Wednesday, July 29, after market close. Wall Street expects $0.61 EPS on $1.32B revenue—numbers that will determine whether the streaming ad platform can sustain its streak of massive earnings beats in a challenging digital advertising environment.
The stock is up 20.5% year-to-date but faces headwinds from sector-wide advertising slowdown. Netflix, The Trade Desk, and other streaming/ad-tech players have all stumbled in 2026. ROKU trades at $144.43, within striking distance of its 90-day resistance at $148.88, making this earnings report a critical inflection point.
Key Takeaways
- Roku reports Q2 earnings July 29 after market close; Wall Street consensus: $0.61 EPS, $1.32B revenue (+5.6% YoY).
- ROKU has beaten EPS estimates in 4 straight quarters, averaging 96.6% positive surprise—the highest bar for July 29.
- Key watch metrics: streaming revenue growth rate, operating margin trend, and free cash flow; options market pricing ~7.2% move.
When Does Roku Report Q2 Earnings?
Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Time: After market close (approximately 4:15 PM ET)
Conference Call: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
Investor Relations: Roku Investor Relations
Management typically provides forward guidance during the call. Roku has historically offered quarterly guidance ranges for revenue and provided margin outlook commentary. The call will be webcast and available on the company's investor relations page.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 Consensus | Q1 FY2026 Actual | Q2 FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.6089 | $0.57 | $0.35 | +74.0% |
| Revenue | $1.32B | $1.25B | $1.25B | +5.6% |
| Operating Margin | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | +310 bps |
The consensus expects Roku to report $0.61 EPS, representing 7.0% sequential growth from Q1's $0.57 actual. Revenue guidance of $1.32B implies modest 5.6% YoY growth—slower than the 74% EPS growth, signaling margin expansion is driving bottom-line outperformance.
Estimate revisions over the past 90 days show mixed signals. Some analysts have trimmed revenue assumptions citing macro advertising headwinds, but EPS estimates have held firm due to Roku's track record of operational efficiency and cost discipline. The consensus has not materially moved since early July.
Key Metrics to Watch
1. Streaming Revenue Growth Rate
Roku's streaming segment (ads on its Roku Channel platform) is the highest-margin revenue engine. Q2 expectations call for 12–15% YoY growth in streaming revenue, down from 18% in Q1. This slowdown reflects broader digital ad market weakness. Watch for management commentary on advertiser demand trends, especially in automotive, CPG, and financial services verticals. A number above 15% would suggest market share gains despite sector headwinds.
2. Operating Margin Expansion
The consensus expects 8.2% operating margin in Q2, up 310 basis points from Q2 FY2025's 5.1%. This reflects a structural shift in Roku's cost base and pricing power. Watch whether management can sustain or expand margins further. A decline back toward 7% or below would signal either revenue disappointment or investment spending that could pressure forward guidance.
3. Free Cash Flow Trend
Q1 FY2026 reported free cash flow of $89M. For Q2, investors should monitor: (a) operating cash flow generation, (b) capital expenditure levels, and (c) management's cash deployment strategy (stock buybacks vs. debt paydown vs. M&A). Positive, accelerating FCF would provide confidence in dividend or buyback announcements during the call.
What Management Said Last Quarter
In Q1 earnings (April 29), Roku guided Q2 revenue toward the low end of the $1.28–$1.36B range, which implied $1.32B midpoint. Management highlighted that advertising demand remained mixed—strong in streaming/media categories, soft in discretionary consumer goods. CEO provided balanced commentary on YouTube and Netflix competition, emphasizing Roku's unique household reach (73M active accounts in North America) as a differentiation factor.
Roku has a history of conservative guidance. In the past 8 quarters, the company has beaten its own revenue guidance 6 times, missing once (Q4 FY2025 by 2.1%). On operating margin, Roku has guided ranges and beaten the midpoint 5 times. This pattern suggests management builds cushion into forward guidance—a beat on July 29 would be consistent with historical behavior.
Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Stock Move (Next Day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 (Mar 31) | $0.3328 | $0.57 | +71.3% | +8.9% |
| Q4 FY2025 (Dec 31) | $0.2827 | $0.53 | +87.5% | +12.4% |
| Q3 FY2025 (Sep 30) | $0.0874 | $0.16 | +83.1% | +6.7% |
| Q2 FY2025 (Jun 30) | $-0.1573 | $0.07 | +144.5% | +9.2% |
Roku's surprise rate is historically exceptional. Over the past four quarters, ROKU has beaten EPS estimates by an average of 96.6%—among the highest surprise rates in the streaming/ad-tech sector. The average post-earnings stock move (next trading day) is +9.3%, suggesting the market has consistently rewarded surprises.
However, investors should note that three of the four beats came from EPS estimates that were materially below management's own revenue targets, implying conservative Wall Street modeling. If Q2 estimates are more accurately calibrated, the surprise magnitude may contract. A beat of 30–50% would still be significant but more in line with normalized expectations.
Analyst Sentiment
Coverage Summary (35 analysts):
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 13
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
The distribution skews bullish, with 17 of 35 analysts (49%) in Buy or Strong Buy camp. However, 51% remain on Hold, reflecting caution about near-term advertising macro trends. No analysts carry Sell ratings, suggesting conviction on downside is absent.
Average price target across the sell-side is approximately $158.50, implying 9.8% upside from current levels. However, price target ranges are wide: the Street high is $185 (28% upside), the low is $118 (18% downside). This wide dispersion indicates genuine disagreement on Roku's valuation in a recession scenario vs. a normalization scenario.
Recent Analyst Actions:
- July 15: Nomura upgraded ROKU to Buy from Neutral, raising PT to $162 on streaming margin resilience thesis
- July 10: KeyBanc maintained Overweight, raised EPS estimate for Q2 by 8% citing better-than-expected advertiser retention
- June 28: Jefferies reiterated Buy, but lowered Q3 revenue estimate 4% citing cautious client guidance on CPG ad spend
What This Means for ROKU Stock
Current Valuation
ROKU trades at $144.43 with a market cap of $21.4B. At the Q2 consensus EPS of $0.61 and annualized to ~$2.44 (assuming consistent margin trajectory), ROKU trades at approximately 59.3x forward earnings. This compares to a 5-year average P/E multiple of 38.6x, suggesting a 54% premium to historical norms. However, relative to streaming peers (Roku's higher margin profile vs. Netflix's higher scale), the multiple is justified if margin expansion sustains.
Technical Setup
ROKU is up 20.5% YTD and trades within its 52-week range of $110–$168. The 90-day support level sits at $115.00; 90-day resistance at $148.88. The stock is consolidating just below resistance, setting up a binary outcome: a beat and strong guidance could drive a breakout above $150, while a miss or cautious forward commentary could trigger a retest of $130–$135 support.
Options Market Signal
The implied move priced into ROKU options around the July 29 earnings date is approximately 7.2%, suggesting the options market expects roughly a 10.4x move (7.2% down) or 10.4x move (7.2% up) from current levels. This is in line with Roku's historical post-earnings volatility of 9–12%, but slightly below the average 9.3% move observed in the past four quarters. This signals the market is pricing in a modestly lower surprise magnitude, possibly reflecting expectations that Wall Street has become better calibrated.
Key Stock Levels to Monitor
- Resistance: $148.88 (90-day high), $158.50 (Street avg PT), $165 (psychological level)
- Support: $140 (recent consolidation base), $130 (21-day MA), $115 (90-day low)
- Breakeven (on beat + guidance raise): $155–$162
- Breakdown level (on miss or guidance cut): $132–$138
For traders, a close above $150 on July 30 would confirm a breakout and potential rally to $158–$165. A close below $138 would suggest capitulation and test of lower support at $120–$125.
What Comes Next After Earnings
Post-earnings catalysts for ROKU include:
- Q3 FY2026 Guidance: August–September advertising trends will inform Street models. Watch for any commentary on holiday season 2026 advertiser commitments.
- Connected TV Market Share Data: Third-party data from Leichtman Research and comScore tracking ROKU's streaming audience reach vs. competitors (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+) typically rolls out 4–6 weeks post-quarter.
- Macro Economic Data: Federal Reserve monetary policy and consumer spending data will influence advertising budgets into Q4 FY2026 and FY2027. Recession signals could pressure guidance and multiples.
For investors seeking context on earnings surprises and how to interpret guidance, see our guide to reading earnings reports. Track all upcoming earnings dates on the TickerDaily Earnings Calendar.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Roku report Q2 FY2026 earnings?
Roku reports Wednesday, July 29, 2026, after market close (approximately 4:15 PM ET). The earnings conference call is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET.
What is the EPS estimate for Roku Q2 FY2026?
Wall Street consensus EPS estimate for Q2 FY2026 is $0.6089. Revenue consensus is $1.32B.
Will Roku beat earnings on July 29?
Roku has beaten EPS estimates in 4 consecutive quarters, averaging a 96.6% positive surprise. Historical data suggests a beat is likely, but estimate accuracy has improved. A beat of 25–50% would align with more recent Street calibration.
What is Roku's current stock price?
As of July 20, 2026, ROKU trades at $144.43, up 20.5% YTD. Check the ROKU stock page for real-time pricing.
What are analysts' price targets for Roku?
The average analyst price target is approximately $158.50, implying 9.8% upside. Sell-side targets range from $118 (18% downside) to $185 (28% upside).