Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on November 11, 2026, after market close. The cryptocurrency mining company faces elevated expectations after a volatile year marked by significant earnings misses and stock underperformance. With MARA down 41.5% year-to-date, investors are scrutinizing every metric ahead of the announcement.
Key Takeaways
- MARA reports Q3 FY2026 earnings November 11 after market close; consensus expects -$0.12 EPS and $0.19B revenue.
- Historical earnings surprises average -1106%, with the company missing by 916% in Q2 and 3426% in Q4 2025.
- 22 analysts cover MARA with 14 Buy/Strong Buy ratings; average price target of $12.40 implies 83% upside from current $6.77 level.
When Does Marathon Digital Report Earnings?
Marathon Digital will release Q3 FY2026 earnings after market close on Tuesday, November 11, 2026. The earnings announcement is expected approximately 4:05 p.m. ET, immediately following the official market close at 4:00 p.m. ET.
The company will host a conference call for investors and analysts the following day, November 12, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Management will discuss quarterly results, current operational metrics, and forward-looking guidance during the call.
For real-time updates and official press releases, investors should monitor the Marathon Digital investor relations page. The company typically provides detailed operational metrics alongside financial results, given the nature of cryptocurrency mining operations.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Equity analysts expect Marathon Digital to report a loss in Q3 FY2026. Here's the consensus framework:
| Metric | Q3 FY2026 Consensus | Q2 FY2026 Actual | Q3 FY2025 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.1203 | -$1.57 | $0.31 |
| Revenue | $0.19B | ~$0.18B (est.) | ~$0.16B (est.) |
The consensus EPS estimate of -$0.12 represents an expectation for another loss quarter, though substantially smaller than Q2's -$1.57 actual result. This marks a significant deterioration versus Q3 2025's $0.31 profit, signaling year-over-year margin compression or operational challenges.
Revenue guidance at $0.19B suggests flat to slightly positive sequential growth, but represents the reality of cryptocurrency mining economics: elevated electricity costs, network difficulty adjustments, and Bitcoin price volatility all compress margins in periods of elevated competition and capital intensity.
analyst estimates have shown downward revision pressure over the past 90 days. Initial Q3 estimates were more bullish; the current consensus reflects degradation as operational metrics and Bitcoin price dynamics unfolded through October 2026.
Key Metrics to Watch
Bitcoin Production and Hash Rate: Marathon Digital's most critical operational metric is total Bitcoin produced during Q3 and the company's deployed hash rate (measured in exahashes per second, or EH/s). Wall Street models production directly to Bitcoin price, which has traded in the $41,000–$48,000 range during Q3. Management guidance on hash rate expansion and upcoming miner installations will shape Q4 and 2027 production expectations. Any delays in deployment would pressure forward revenue estimates.
Operating Margin and Electricity Costs: Mining margin is a function of Bitcoin price divided by cost per Bitcoin produced. MARA's per-unit electricity costs (measured in cents per kilowatt-hour) directly determine profitability. If Q3 shows margin compression despite flat revenue, it signals rising power costs or elevated depreciation from recent capital expenditures. Management commentary on power purchase agreements and average electricity rates is critical for 2027 guidance credibility.
Free Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure: Marathon Digital has historically been capital-intensive, investing heavily in new mining equipment and facility expansion. Q3 free cash flow will indicate whether the company is self-funding growth or burning cash. Analysts closely monitor capex guidance relative to production growth; if capex is accelerating faster than hash rate deployment, capital efficiency is deteriorating.
What Management Said Last Quarter
In Q2 FY2026, Marathon Digital reported a significant loss of -$1.57 per share, missing consensus estimates by 916%. This marked a dramatic swing from Q1's positive earnings, triggered primarily by the sharp Bitcoin price decline that occurred in May-June 2026. Management characterized Q2 as "a reset quarter" amid macro volatility.
The company has historically guided conservatively on Bitcoin production but provided wide ranges on electricity costs, reflecting the volatility inherent in power markets. Marathon Digital's prior-quarter guidance typically comes with caveats around Bitcoin price sensitivity: a $1,000 move in Bitcoin price can swing quarterly EPS by $0.15–$0.25 depending on production volumes and hedging positions.
Management has emphasized long-term hash rate expansion targets and expressed confidence in the cost structure of its facilities. However, the company's earnings miss history suggests guidance is frequently missed on the downside, indicating either conservative guidance assumptions or operational execution challenges.
Earnings Surprise History
Marathon Digital's earnings track record shows extreme volatility and consistent misses:
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Stock Move (next day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.4526 | $0.31 | -31.5% | -8.2% |
| Q4 FY2025 | -$0.1282 | -$4.52 | -3425.7% | -22.4% |
| Q1 FY2026 | -$2.1963 | -$3.31 | -50.7% | -14.7% |
| Q2 FY2026 | $0.1924 | -$1.57 | -916.0% | -18.9% |
The average EPS surprise across the past four quarters is -1106%, an extreme outlier that reflects the difficulty of forecasting mining profitability in volatile Bitcoin markets. Q4 2025's -3426% miss was particularly severe, driven by a sharp Bitcoin drawdown that caught consensus estimates off-guard.
More concerning: the post-earnings stock moves show negative bias. Despite the magnitude of misses, MARA has declined 8–22% in the trading session following earnings announcements in three of the past four quarters. This suggests that guidance or forward commentary has been disappointing even when headline EPS beats (or misses less severely than feared) occur.
Analyst Sentiment
Marathon Digital commands significant Wall Street attention, with 22 analysts covering the stock:
- Strong Buy ratings: 4
- Buy ratings: 10
- Hold ratings: 6
- Sell ratings: 2
- Strong Sell ratings: 0
The 14 Buy/Strong Buy ratings represent 64% of the analyst base, indicating that despite recent underperformance, the consensus remains constructive on MARA's long-term positioning. The average analyst price target sits at approximately $12.40, implying 83% upside from the current $6.77 level.
Recent notable analyst actions include several Hold initiations and target reductions in October 2026, reflecting concern over Bitcoin price headwinds and mining difficulty increases. However, institutions maintain Buy-equivalent ratings, betting on a recovery in Bitcoin price and recognition of MARA's efficiency improvements.
What This Means for MARA Stock
Marathon Digital is currently trading at $6.77, down 41.5% year-to-date and significantly below its July 2026 highs near $13.50. The stock's 90-day trading range spans $6.45 (support) to $13.98 (resistance), with the current price near the lower end of this range.
At current levels, MARA trades at a significant discount to its analyst consensus target. However, valuation multiples for mining companies are typically Bitcoin price-dependent rather than P/E-driven, given earnings volatility. A more relevant metric: MARA's enterprise value relative to deployed hash rate (measured in dollars per EH/s), which currently sits at elevated levels compared to historical averages, reflecting Bitcoin price weakness.
Options market implied volatility suggests traders are pricing for a 6–9% move on the earnings announcement, likely driven by the combination of Bitcoin price sensitivity and management guidance on Q4 production and 2027 capex plans. If Bitcoin price remains stable through November 11, upside surprise is possible; a Bitcoin decline in the final week of October could pressure Q3 results further.
Forward catalysts beyond earnings include: (1) Bitcoin halving event timing and hash rate difficulty adjustments in Q4 2026; (2) regulatory developments around U.S. cryptocurrency mining; and (3) management commentary on AI chip repurposing, a topic gaining attention in the sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Marathon Digital report Q3 FY2026 earnings?
Marathon Digital releases Q3 FY2026 earnings on Tuesday, November 11, 2026, after market close (approximately 4:05 p.m. ET). The company will host a conference call on Wednesday, November 12, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. ET. Track updates on the official investor relations page or on TickerDaily's Earnings Calendar.
What is the EPS consensus estimate for MARA Q3 FY2026?
Wall Street consensus expects Marathon Digital to report a loss of -$0.12 per share in Q3 FY2026, compared to -$1.57 in Q2 2026 and a profit of $0.31 in Q3 2025. Revenue consensus is $0.19 billion.
Does Marathon Digital have a history of beating earnings?
No. Marathon Digital has missed earnings estimates in all four of the past quarters, with an average surprise of -1106%. The company's earnings are highly sensitive to Bitcoin price movements, which create difficulty in forecasting. Q4 2025 saw a -3426% miss when Bitcoin prices declined sharply.
What is the analyst price target for MARA?
The average analyst price target for Marathon Digital is $12.40, implying 83% upside from current levels near $6.77. 14 of 22 analysts (64%) rate the stock as Buy or Strong Buy, while 6 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell.
What should I watch during MARA's earnings call?
Investors should focus on: (1) total Bitcoin production for Q3 and deployed hash rate; (2) management guidance on Q4 production and 2027 capex; (3) electricity costs and margin trends; and (4) any commentary on the impact of Bitcoin price volatility on mining profitability.