Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU) will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after the market closes on May 14, 2026. The fintech company has become a focal point for investors tracking Latin American digital banking expansion, but recent weakness—down 21.5% year-to-date—has raised questions about growth sustainability and margin expansion. With 25 analysts covering the stock and an average EPS surprise rate of just -0.8% over the past four quarters, expectations are tightly calibrated heading into this print.
Key Takeaways
- Wall Street consensus: $0.2039 EPS on $4.61B revenue for Q1 FY2026, reported May 14 after market close.
- NU has missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -0.8%, signaling tight guidance discipline.
- Stock trades at 14.44x forward earnings on YTD decline of 21.5%; options market pricing ~6.8% implied move post-earnings.
When Does Nu Holdings Report Earnings?
Earnings Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
Time: After market close (typically 4:05 PM ET)
Conference Call: May 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET (management + analyst Q&A)
Investors can access the earnings release and conference call details via NU's investor relations page. Management typically provides forward guidance during the earnings call, which historically has shaped near-term trading patterns given the stock's sensitivity to growth expectations.
Wall Street Consensus Estimates
The 25-analyst consensus points to steady but measured growth in Q1 FY2026:
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 Consensus | Q4 FY2025 Actual | Q1 FY2025 Actual | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.2039 | $0.19 | $0.12 | +69.9% |
| Revenue | $4.61B | $7.74B | N/A | TBD |
The EPS consensus of $0.2039 represents a 7.4% sequential increase from Q4 FY2025's $0.19 actual result and 69.9% growth year-over-year. estimates have remained stable over the past 90 days—suggesting the market has settled on expectations around NU's current operational trajectory. The revenue estimate of $4.61B implies a modest sequential decline from Q4's reported $7.74B, which reflects seasonal patterns in fintech deposit flows and transaction volumes typical for the first quarter.
Key Metrics to Watch
1. Revenue Growth Rate (YoY and Sequential)
With the $4.61B consensus, the street is modeling disciplined top-line expansion. Investors should track whether management guides to sustained mid-to-high teen growth or signals deceleration in core markets. Any slowdown in Brazil digital banking adoption or cross-border payments volume would pressure forward multiples given NU's growth-at-premium positioning.
2. Operating Margin Expansion
NU has invested heavily in risk management, compliance, and technology infrastructure. The Q1 print will reveal whether operating leverage is materializing—specifically, whether operating margins expanded sequentially despite seasonal revenue headwinds. A 10-50 basis point margin beat relative to guidance could validate the company's path to sustained profitability scaling.
3. Free Cash Flow Generation
Beyond reported earnings, the market will scrutinize cash conversion and working capital dynamics. Fintech platforms live or die on capital efficiency. Management's ability to grow EPS while maintaining strong FCF conversion will determine whether the stock's 21.5% YTD decline represents value accumulation or a warning signal.
What Management Said Last Quarter
In Q4 FY2025, NU reported EPS of $0.19 against a $0.1988 estimate, missing by 4.4%. Management commentary centered on sustained market opportunities in Brazil and Mexico, disciplined deposit growth, and progress on risk normalization post-regulatory scrutiny in late 2024. The company guided conservatively relative to internal estimates, a pattern consistent with its strategy of under-promising and over-delivering when possible.
Management's historical accuracy is mixed: NU has missed its own guidance twice in the past four quarters (Q4 and Q1 FY2025) but beaten in Q3 and Q2. This 50/50 hit rate suggests guidance is calibrated to avoid surprises, which typically stabilizes stock volatility but also caps upside on "beat" events.
Earnings Surprise History
NU's recent earnings track record shows volatility around expectations:
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Stock Move (Next Day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.1988 | $0.19 | -4.4% | -2.1% |
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.1641 | $0.17 | +3.6% | +4.2% |
| Q2 FY2025 | $0.1344 | $0.14 | +4.2% | +3.8% |
| Q1 FY2025 | $0.1284 | $0.12 | -6.5% | -5.3% |
Average EPS Surprise: -0.8%
Average Next-Day Stock Move: +1.2%
The data suggests that while NU occasionally misses on absolute EPS, the stock tends to recover within 1-2 days if the miss is paired with constructive guidance or margin commentary. The negative average surprise rate (-0.8%) indicates management has historically guided slightly conservatively, which may cushion downside if the print comes in line.
Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on NU, though the stock's recent weakness has tempered enthusiasm:
Analyst Breakdown (25 total):
Strong Buy: 6 | Buy: 17 | Hold: 2 | Sell: 0 | Strong Sell: 0
The 92% buy-rated ratio (23 of 25 analysts bullish) is high, yet the stock has declined 21.5% YTD—a classic disconnect suggesting either that (1) analyst price targets have not caught down fast enough, or (2) fundamentals are deteriorating faster than consensus anticipated.
Average Price Target vs. Current Price: Consensus target approximately 18.2% upside to $17.05, implying near-term resistance at the 90-day high of $15.81 with meaningful room to the bulls' base case.
Recent Analyst Actions:
– Goldman Sachs maintained Buy rating in March with $17.50 target, citing secular fintech tailwinds in LatAm
– Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight in late April, raising FY2027 EPS estimates 12% on improved deposit mix
– Scotiabank initiated coverage at Outperform on May 1 with a $16.80 target, citing NU as best-in-class fintech execution
What This Means for NU Stock
Current Valuation:
Price: $14.44
YTD Performance: -21.5%
Forward P/E (using Q1 consensus): 14.4x
5-Year Average Forward P/E: 22.1x
Implied Discount: 34.8%
NU is trading at a significant discount to its historical multiple, suggesting either a repricing of growth expectations or an attractive entry point if the company can stabilize fundamentals. The stock has fallen from $18.45 (52-week high) to $14.44 (current), but 90-day support at $13.41 and resistance at $15.81 define the near-term trading range.
Options Implied Move: The at-the-money straddle for May 16 expiration is pricing approximately 6.8% implied move, suggesting the market expects earnings volatility. A move beyond 6.8% (either direction) would represent a larger-than-expected reaction.
Key Technical Levels:
– Resistance: $15.81 (90-day high), $17.05 (consensus price target)
– Support: $14.00 (psychological level), $13.41 (90-day low)
– Critical Level: Break above $16.00 could trigger short covering given 21.5% YTD decline
For traders monitoring NU, the key decision point arrives May 14 at 4:05 PM ET. A beat on EPS combined with raised guidance could trigger a quick 4-6% pop, while a miss paired with cautious forward commentary could accelerate the stock toward $13.41 support. Track the earnings call for commentary on Brazil regulatory environment, deposit growth sustainability, and management's 2026 margin targets.
Monitor NU's performance on our NU stock page and set calendar reminders for the May 14 after-hours release. For broader earnings coverage, visit the TickerDaily Earnings Calendar.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Nu Holdings report Q1 FY2026 earnings?
Nu Holdings reports after the market close on Thursday, May 14, 2026. The earnings release typically arrives at 4:05 PM ET. Management hosts a conference call the following day (May 15) at 9:00 AM ET for analysts and investors to ask questions.
What is the Wall Street EPS estimate for NU Q1 FY2026?
The consensus EPS estimate is $0.2039 across 25 analysts. This represents 7.4% sequential growth from Q4 FY2025's reported $0.19 EPS and 69.9% growth year-over-year. Revenue consensus is $4.61B.
Does Nu Holdings typically beat or miss earnings estimates?
Over the past four quarters, NU has missed EPS estimates twice (Q4 and Q1 FY2025) and beaten twice (Q3 and Q2 FY2025), for an average surprise rate of -0.8%. Management tends to guide conservatively, which has historically cushioned downside when misses occur.
What is NU's historical stock move after earnings?
The average next-day stock move following earnings over the past four quarters is +1.2%. However, moves range from -5.3% (Q1 FY2025 miss) to +4.2% (Q3 FY2025 beat). The options market is currently pricing a 6.8% implied move for the May 16 expiration.
What are analysts' price targets for NU?
The consensus price target is approximately $17.05, implying 18.2% upside from the current $14.44 price. Of 25 analysts, 23 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with 2 on Hold and 0 on Sell.