Stock Market Today, May 17, 2026: Week Ahead — Costco, Salesforce, XPeng Earnings Drive Trading

The stock market today is in a critical holding pattern heading into the week of May 25–29, with one of the heaviest earnings calendars in months set to drive price action. Major names across retail (COST), software (CRM), and China equities (PDD, XPEV) report earnings, while economic data and Fed commentary could shift the macro regime. The market's positioning into this week will determine whether the current rally has legs or faces mean reversion after weeks of strength.

This Week's Earnings Calendar: Timeline and Key Estimates

PDD Holdings kicks off the week Monday (May 25) before market open with $110.43B revenue expected and EPS guidance of $16.80. The Chinese e-commerce and fintech giant has been under pressure from regulatory scrutiny in Beijing, but Shanghai's recent stimulus signals and improving domestic spending trends could spark a reversal if management signals operational stability. Watch for margin expansion commentary—PDD's ability to monetize its Pinduoduo platform without sacrificing user growth is the bull case.

AutoZone reports Tuesday (May 26) with $36.43 EPS expected—a significant bar that requires consistent same-store sales growth and pricing power in the aftermarket auto parts space. Macy's also reports Tuesday with EPS barely positive at $0.024, making this a binary catalyst. The stock has rallied off Q1 lows; earnings could either validate the turnaround narrative or trigger a sharp reversal.

Wednesday (May 27) is the heaviest day. Salesforce ($11.16B revenue est., $3.15 EPS) faces investor scrutiny on AI revenue contribution and cloud growth deceleration fears—this stock has performed, but Wall Street needs proof that Einstein AI adoption is flowing through to the bottom line. HP Inc. ($14.18B revenue, $0.72 EPS) must show PC market stabilization. Best Buy ($8.92B revenue, $1.24 EPS) will be watched for consumer electronics spending and margins. Gap Inc. ($3.56B revenue, $0.37 EPS) and Kohl's ($3.02B revenue, -$0.20 EPS) round out the retail punch—both are testing whether discretionary consumer demand remains intact post-holiday season. Futu Holdings ($6.20B revenue, $22.53 EPS) reports with the highest leverage to China market sentiment; any weakness in Hong Kong trading or wealth management flows will compress the multiple.

Thursday (May 28) brings the power names. Costco ($71.05B revenue, $5.03 EPS) is the institutional test case for inflation resilience and membership pricing power. A beat here sends a strong signal that consumers are bifurcating toward value plays and quality. Dell Technologies ($35.99B revenue, $2.97 EPS) has been a AI infrastructure play proxy—the market needs confirmation that enterprise server and storage orders remain robust. XPeng reports with a -$0.98 EPS expectation, confirming the Chinese EV maker is still unprofitable; focus instead on delivery guidance and gross margin trends, which will hint at price war intensity in China's EV market. Dollar Tree ($5.07B revenue, $1.58 EPS) and China Pharma ($3.26B revenue, $2.05 EPS) fill out the day.

Friday (May 29) is light after hours. Hormel Foods reports pre-market with $2.98B revenue expected—a steady processor of commodities, it's a macro inflation gauge.

Sector Rotation Watch: Where Earnings Risk Concentrates

Consumer discretionary and technology both report heavily next week, creating a two-factor risk matrix. If COST and BBY beat but guide cautiously, the market will repricing consumer resilience lower—a negative for the broader discretionary complex and a warning shot on recession risks. If CRM and DELL disappoint on AI monetization, technology multiple compression could accelerate.

The last time we saw this concentration of retail and tech earnings (Q2 2024) was right before a 7.8% market drawdown, as investors repriced growth expectations and margins simultaneously. This week's data will either confirm the bull case or expose cracks in the rally's foundation.

Retail and consumer discretionary stocks will see the most movement in percentage terms. GAP, KSS, and M are high-beta plays—a miss on comparable sales or margin compression could trigger 8–12% selloffs, while a beat could spark 10%+ rallies. AutoZone and COST are more stable; misses here impact market sentiment more broadly than individual stock volatility.

Key Catalysts Beyond Earnings

Economic data will compete with earnings for attention. Fed speakers earlier in the week will set tone for interest rate expectations heading into June's FOMC meeting. If inflation commentary leans hawkish, rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs) could get whipsawed despite otherwise stable macro data. A dovish signal would support a continued rally in growth and technology.

China stimulus news continues to be a second-order driver. PDD and XPEV earnings will be interpreted through the lens of Beijing's ongoing efforts to stabilize growth. Any new fiscal support packages announced during earnings season could create a strong backdrop for these names.

Technical Levels to Monitor Before Earnings Week

The S&P 500 has been consolidating in a narrow range heading into May 25. Key support sits around the 50-day moving average; a break below that level ahead of COST and CRM earnings could trigger pre-earnings selling. Conversely, a close above the prior week's high would suggest institutional positioning for an earnings beat scenario.

Volatility indexes have compressed, signaling low premium for downside protection. Smart money is typically reducing hedges when VIX is this low into heavy earnings weeks—a contrarian warning sign that a surprise miss could lead to a sharper selloff than implied by options pricing.

Sector-by-Sector Setup for Next Week

Consumer Discretionary: Overweight earnings binary risk. Best Buy and retail names are range-bound, but earnings could break them significantly in either direction. Inventory levels and promotional activity will be critical commentary.

Technology: Salesforce is the marquee name. A guided-up scenario (rare lately) would validate AI monetization thesis. A guided-flat or down scenario accelerates growth derating fears.

Energy & Materials: Quiet week with no major names reporting. Commodity-linked stocks like Hormel will signal inflation pass-through ability.

Financials: Futu Holdings is the only major financial reporting; strength here would suggest wealth management demand in China remains robust despite market volatility.

What Happens if Earnings Disappoint?

A broad miss scenario (particularly in technology and discretionary) could spark a 3–5% market correction early in the week, followed by potential stabilization as the market reprices 2026 earnings forward. The Fed would likely maintain its current dovish posture in response, supporting a recovery by week's end.

Historical precedent: The last broad earnings miss wave (Q3 2025) led to a 6.2% drawdown over three weeks before bouncing off support. If next week follows that pattern, traders should prepare for volatility and potential shorting opportunities in high-beta discretionary names.

Key Tickers to Monitor Next Week

For a comprehensive view of all earnings reports, see the full TickerDaily earnings calendar for May 25–29.

Primary watch list: $COST, $CRM, $PDD, $DELL, $BBY, $XPEV, $GAP, $M.

Secondary names with volatility potential: $AZO, $HPQ, $KSS, $FUTU, $DLTR.

How to Prepare for Earnings Week Today (May 17)

This Sunday evening is the ideal time to review consensus estimates, prior guidance, and technical levels. The difference between traders who profit from earnings volatility and those who get whipsawed is preparation. Set support and resistance levels for your watched tickers now. Review analyst reports on Costco and Salesforce to understand the bull and bear cases. Check options positioning to gauge where the smart money is hedged.

For those new to earnings season trading, our complete guide to trading earnings reports walks through the mechanics of pre-market positioning and post-earnings reversals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which earnings report is most important for the market next week?

Costco's May 28 after-market report is the highest-stakes earnings for macro sentiment. A beat with steady guidance validates the consumer resilience narrative. A miss or cautious outlook would trigger a sharp repricing of 2026 growth expectations and likely spark a 2–3% market pullback the following day.

Will China earnings (PDD, XPEV) be more volatile than U.S. earnings?

Yes. China equities are sensitive to both company-specific results and macro stimulus signals from Beijing. PDD trading could see 5–8% daily swings based on regulatory commentary alone, while XPEV is exposed to EV price war intensity and delivery guidance misses, which often result in 8–12% post-earnings moves.

What's the biggest risk for technology earnings?

AI monetization is the core question for Salesforce and enterprise software broadly. If guidance reflects slower-than-expected Einstein AI adoption, the sector could reprice lower across the board. The risk is binary: beat with AI upside, or guide down on macro caution.

Should I hold retail positions through earnings?

This depends on your risk tolerance. Retail stocks like Best Buy, Gap, and Macy's are binary events. If you own them, consider trimming 30–50% ahead of earnings to lock in gains, then buy weakness post-earnings if the setup looks constructive. Options positioning is now pricing 4–6% moves in these names.

What economic data matters this week beyond earnings?

Initial jobless claims (usually Thursday) and consumer sentiment data could influence market tone. Stronger labor data would support Fed patience on rate cuts. Weaker data would accelerate expectations for June cuts, supporting growth stocks into earnings.

Bottom Line

The week of May 25–29 is a critical test of the current market cycle. If Costco and discretionary retailers beat with stable guidance, the bull case holds. If Salesforce and enterprise software show robust AI demand, technology multiple expansion continues. Conversely, any broad disappointment from these bellwethers will trigger a repricing of growth assumptions and could spark the first significant correction since early May.

The macro thesis going into next week: the market is pricing a soft landing with accelerating AI revenue contribution across enterprise software and infrastructure. Earnings either validate that story or expose cracks. With valuations extended and volatility compressed, the risk-reward is increasingly skewed toward disappointment scenarios. Traders should be defensive heading into Monday and prepared to capitalize on post-earnings volatility in oversold names.

For a full week-by-week earnings calendar, see the TickerDaily earnings calendar. Last week's action: Stock Market Today, May 15, 2026: Penny Stocks Dominate Weekly Action as Biotech and AI Lead.